By Maria Kalamatas | July 21, 2025

Section: International / Air Freight & Market Trends

Chicago, July 21 — Airlines and freight forwarders across North America are reporting a sharp increase in air cargo demand as major retailers accelerate inventory building ahead of the fall shopping season, putting pressure on available capacity.

“Volumes jumped nearly overnight in early July,” said Brian Carter, head of operations at Skybridge Logistics, a U.S.-based freight forwarder. “Retailers are moving apparel, electronics, and home goods earlier than usual to avoid supply chain surprises later this year.”

Retailers shift timelines

Large chains are booking space well ahead of their typical schedules, spurred by concerns over ocean freight reliability and longer lead times from Asia. According to industry data, transpacific air cargo volumes to the U.S. West Coast are running 14 percent higher than the same period last year.

“Everyone wants their stock in place by late August, not October,” Carter explained. “That’s creating a mini-peak well before the usual surge.”

Capacity tightening despite charters

While some carriers have added charter flights to meet demand, available freighters are limited. Passenger aircraft conversions are helping, but ground operations at key airports like Los Angeles and Chicago are nearing their limits.

“Our handling crews are already working extended shifts,” said Angela Ruiz, cargo services manager at O’Hare International Airport. “Even with extra flights, processing time is stretched thin.”

Impact on rates

Spot rates for Asia–U.S. routes have climbed steadily over the past two weeks, with forwarders warning of further increases if demand continues to build through August.

“For high-margin or time-sensitive products, shippers will pay,” Ruiz noted. “But some low-value cargo may get priced out of air altogether.”

Looking forward

Analysts expect the trend to hold through mid-September as retailers finalize seasonal stocking. Beyond that, much depends on how ocean freight networks perform and whether consumer demand holds steady into the fourth quarter.

“Air freight is the safety net right now,” Carter said. “But if demand keeps rising, that net could start to fray.”

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